Before We Bury the Bolts

Photo Credit: Alyssa Shimko | Thunderstruck Sports

For a team that just went 8-1-2 over an 11-game stretch, the Tampa Bay Lightning have been declared "hot garbage" with remarkable speed. It's almost impressive!

The Lightning came out of a four-game Western road trip with a sparkling 3-0-1 record. They returned home for a lengthy seven-game stretch in which they went 5-1-1, capped off with a victory over the Boston Bruins Saturday after having clinched a playoff berth earlier that day.

That's the context.

Then Came the Bolts' Losses

Then came two road losses on a back-to-back-- one in Buffalo and one in Ottawa. The Lightning are not a team to make excuses, but both of these games were played without Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. Hagel and Cirelli are both top-six forwards who absorb big minutes, including on special teams. Add to that the unfortunate injury to Pontus Holmberg (a key member of the Lightning's "identity line" with Yanni Gourde and Zemgus Girgensons) in Monday night's game, and this team is, obviously, missing a few important pieces.

Suddenly, in some social media cirlces, the conversation has shifted to swift first round exits and fatal flaws.

Reset Required

This is where things need a reset. Because if there's one thing the NHL has shown us, repeatedly, it is that short stretches (good or bad) simply do not predict playoff success (or lack thereof).

In 2019, the Lightning looked untouchable. Historically dominant. A team that would cruise through the playoffs (some were even predicting 16-0!). They didn't win a single game.

In 2021, they stumbled into the postseason on a three-game losing streak, including two losses to the Florida Panthers that dropped them to third in the division. They faced that same Panthers team in round one and beat them in six on their way to a Stanley Cup.

A Familiar April Cry for Bolts Fans

In 2022, the Bolts finished third in the division again and went all the way to the Stanley Cup final, beating the two Atlantic teams that had finished ahead of them in the standing during the regular season along the way (the Leafs in round one and a sweep of the President's Trophy winning Panthers in round two). Of note in that season: Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy had a miserable stretch in early April. From April 5 through 19, he had a record of 0-4-1, and a no-decision game in which he got pulled in the second period. Fans were convinced there could be no Lightning playoff run with Vasilevskiy's career so clearly on the decline! For those who don't recall, "playoff Vasy" held the league's top regular season offense (the Panthers) to a total of three goals in a four-game sweep.

Last year, the Lightning finished ahead of Florida. They looked strong and poised for a run. They were widely projected to go deep. Instead, the third place in the Atlantic division Panthers handled them en-route to their back-to-back Stanley Cup victory.

Important Reminder for Bolts Faithful

For those who want to claim that the problem is that Tampa cannot beat key Atlantic rivals, like Buffalo and Montreal, I'd like to offer a gentle reminder that regular season results are meaningless when playoff time rolls around.

Back in 2019, the Lightning won all three regular season contests against the Columbus Blue Jackets, outscoring them by a total count of 12-3. Then came the playoffs.

And this trend does not hold true just for Tampa. Just last season, Toronto lost all three of their regular-season games to Ottawa... and then beat them in six when it actually mattered. The pattern is consistent. Regular season data has its limits. And the NHL playoffs operate on their own logic. In their own stratosphere.

Acknowledgement vs. Evidence

Yes, the Lightning could be a quick first-round exit. That's always a possibility for any team. Even the most shocking upsets can happen. It's the NHL! But there's a difference between acknowledging the possibility and pretending there is evidence. Right now, there simply isn't.

What we actually have is a team that banked points during a phenomenal 20-1-1 stretch, clinched a playoff berth with seven games remaining in the regular season, and then hit a dip on the road while missing key players.

We have a tightly packed Atlantic division where positioning may shift right up to the final game. And we have a group with a long track record of looking very different in late April than they do in various snapshots over the course of a long season.

Whether the Bolts finish first, second, or third in the division will shapes the matchup, but it won't define the outcome. It never does.

Riding the Hot Garbage Train

If the past several years have taught us anything, it's that the playoffs are unpredictable. And they certainly are not decided by a short stretch in early April.

So... if you're looking for a reason to panic, you'll likely be able to give yourself one, and perhaps you'll jump on the "hot garbage" train. But if you're looking for actual evidence, then you'll have to wait and see how things play out once the puck is dropped for game 83 of the Lightning's 2025-2026 season.