Mid-Season Atlantic Division Predictions, Updates & Surprises from the Thunderstruck Team

Graphic: Mike Smith | Thunderstruck Sports

Before this hockey season began, the writers from the Thunderstruck Sports team gave our predictions for this year's Atlantic Division. Many things have not gone quite as expected in this hotly contested division! So, as the midway point of the season approaches, we examined our earlier predictions and updated as needed. What changed? What stayed the same? Check out our midseason predictions, updates, and surprises!

Mike Smith-- Assistant Editor & Senior Writer:

1. Tampa Bay Lightning: In October I asked if can they get over the South Florida hurdle? Currently they are struggling to solve the Panther riddle, and the riddle of the backup goalies that stymie their offensive production. Injuries have plagued the season so far, however, the young guns are making a name for themselves. Still my favorite to win the division.

2. Detroit Red Wings: The Yzerman experiment is still kind of on the ropes, but the team is responding. I did not see them atop the division in December, but can they maintain and take a shot at the postseason?

3. Florida Panthers: It’s still their division to lose. Physicality continues to be key, but they are struggling with being consistent.

4. Montreal Canadiens: I said they would continue to improve but were still at least a year away. Well, next year might be this year, with consistent play they could sneak into the postseason.

5. Ottawa Senators: Could be one of the top 3 if the cards fall right. Right now, the cards aren’t falling all the ways they need, so they may end up on the outside looking in.

6. Boston Bruins: Beantown is doing better than expected but will end up missing out.

7. Toronto Maple Leafs: October: Another year of close but not quite. December: Not even close. Mediocrity keeps them home this offseason.

8. Buffalo Sabres: October: They continue to be Buffalo. December: They continue to be Buffalo. April: Still Buffalo.

Alyssa Shimko-- Thunderstruck Photographer & Writer

(Alyssa did not submit predictions to start the season but has done an excellent analysis of the season thus far and included midway point predictions.)

1. Tampa Bay Lightning: pardon the homerism, but I believe that dominant 7-game winning streak in late November showed that the Bolts are much deeper and more resilient than any of us - except maybe Julien BriseBois - expected. With hopes for fewer injuries and a friendlier schedule going forward, I believe this team can control its own destiny.

2. Florida Panthers: rather annoyingly, it seems that they still have both the skill and the inability to be appropriately punished for their dangerous plays to stay strong despite their injuries. And with Matthew Tkachuk due to return fairly soon, I suspect the Cats will continue to linger near the top of the division like the stench from an uncleaned litterbox.

3. Detroit Red Wings: Former Lightning GM Steve Yzerman has been rebuilding in Detroit for six years now, and his team has been humming so far this season. With a mix of veterans and young studs, Detroit seems to finally be on the upswing again. I won't be surprised if they keep rolling.

4. Montreal Canadians: Former Lightning Hall of Famer Marty St. Louis is doing a great job with his young guns. Even a mild improvement in their team goaltending percentage would translate to more wins. I expect they'll make things interesting down the stretch and could even sneak into a higher spot if Detroit falters.

5. Boston Bruins: Similar to Florida, it seems like Boston won't go away no matter how badly we want them to. They seem to have enough grit and experience to drag themselves into relevance, though they may not be able to sustain it the rest of the way.

6. Ottawa Senators: I find the Sens intriguing, but largely inconsistent. It seems like they should be close to taking the next step forward with a young core and talented goaltending, but it also seems like they struggle to put both together simultaneously. Maybe next season?

7. Buffalo Sabres: I can't believe I'm about to say this, but...I think Buffalo will finish higher than Toronto this season.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs: I can't believe I'm about to say this, but...I think Toronto will finish lower than Buffalo this season. I don't even have a reason to put that much faith in the Sabres! I just have this weird feeling that letting Marner walk will finally lead to the Leafs’ implosion we've all been waiting for. (Although I will admit that the funniest possible outcome this season would actually be for the Leafs to claw their way back into a playoff spot, just to get swept in the first round. But I'm not convinced they actually have it in them. And I'm really not convinced Craig Berube will still be employed come January 1.)

THREE SURPRISES SO FAR :

One I'm grateful for: rumors of the demise of the Lightning's organizational depth were greatly exaggerated. We've lost a ton of man games to injury already this season, which has meant heavily relying on AHL call-ups, and yet...we look good most nights, and we still sit third in the Atlantic despite having had a rough 10-game stretch as of late. One I'm enraged by: the fact that the Florida Panthers continue to benefit from their constant dirty play. And it's not just in games against the Lightning, during which they have repeatedly targeted Brandon Hagel's head; it's the unpenalized, long-term injuries to Carolina's Seth Jarvis and Jaccob Slavin JUST this past week, amongst many others throughout the season. Something's got to give if the NHL wants to maintain even the thinnest veneer of credibility. One I'm curious about: there's new blood at the top of the Atlantic standings right now, and it's intriguing to say the least. The normal "big four" of Boston, Florida, Tampa, and Toronto have all at times been disappointing so far this season, which means there may finally be openings for younger, less experienced teams like Detroit or Montreal to find themselves in a better-than-wildcard playoff position as the season wears on.

Ernie Norquist-- Writer (from pre-season)

Ernie had no updates since his pre-season predictions (below). He stands by his pick of the Bolts to make the playoffs, but feels the rest of his picks would be "as accurate as throwing darts" at this point.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning

2. Ottawa Senators

3. Toronto Maple Leafs

4. Florida Panthers

5. Montreal Canadiens

6. Detroit Red Wings

7. Boston Bruins

8. Buffalo Sabres

Dan Herrejon-- Editor & Senior Writer

The Atlantic Division has had its share of surprises. At midseason, here are my predictions for how the division ends up.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning - sure they’ve had their Jekyll and Hyde moments, but they are still my choice to win the division.

2. Detroit Red Wings - I’ve been waiting for this team to falter but they seem to refuse. This team will go as their goalie John Gibson goes. Last 5 games were wins and he saved 93% of the shots he faced

3. Florida Panthers - Have to respect the defending champs. Their devastating injuries didn’t devastate them as most thought.

4. Montreal Canadiens - Coach Marty St. Louis has molded his team to play like he used to. Giving 110% every game so they cannot be counted out.

5. Ottawa Senators - This team has a big push in them. Like Montreal, they’re scrappy.

6. Boston Bruins - They continue to come down from early season success. They just don’t have the horses.

7. Toronto Maple Leafs - Internal strife plus tge loss of Mitch Marner adds up to a lost season.

8. Buffalo Sabres - Will be the best 8th place team in the NHL.

Riley Gillespie-Wilson-- Writer

Riley joined the Thunderstruck team after the season started, so he did not provide pre-season predictions. But read his breakdown below for some great insights!

1. Florida Panthers: Make no mistake, you ain’t the champs until you beat the champs. The Atlantic Division will once again be owned by every Lightning fan’s least favorite club- those Cats in Sunrise. This remains an incredibly deep and well-coached team with all the intangibles to win this division, especially as health, the Bolts’ Achilles heel, finds the Panthers down the stretch. Give me Florida in the hotly contested 1-hole at year’s-end.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning: While many are sounding the alarm and stepping firmly on the panic button when it comes to the Bolts, I just can’t imagine this team faltering once healthy bodies arrive at last. While this will be a battle with the squads below to slide into the 2 slot, to me the reasoning is simple. Injures are catching up to the Lightning right now, but we’ve seen the potential for the “next man up” mentality to keep them afloat already. The 7-game win streak anyone? Not to mention, backup goaltending carrying seven straight starts isn’t a recipe for a battered team to get it done. I believe the Bolts with a healthy Andrei Vasilevskiy are in most games. The sole deterrent to this prediction? More injuries. With some extended time off in the forecast for the new year, let’s knock on wood it’s enough for the Bolts to stay in the mix and lock down this position.

3. Montreal Canadiens: This prediction keeps the Habs right where they stand when it was made, in 3rd place. This is an exciting hockey team to watch, with a boatload of young talent coached by familiar face Martin St. Louis. Montreal were a playoff team last year. I believe they are again, bringing home a third-place finish in a tough division- and if they get goaltending, don’t be surprised if they surpass this expectation, and maybe even advance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

4. Detroit Red Wings: This call between Toronto and Detroit was tricky for me, but I give Mo Town the edge, simply because they have more stable goaltending, less injuries, and are currently exceeding expectations. This is a group leading the division as of Dec. 20 (for context the day of this list) so they are not to be overlooked. I think experience gives way to them sliding a bit, as the days of consistency in Detroit are a ways back. That being said, a hot John Gibson could go a long way towards a bigger push.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs: This is a bit of a surprise I know, given the Leafs’ recent regular season records and success. I don’t know though- the “gut feel” in Toronto is giving me the willies this year. A Craig Bérubé coached team should not be struggling to find an identity at the Christmas break, nor should the Buds be struggling to score to this degree. Defense has been even more of an eye sore, and the health of their goaltending is a massive red flag. Maybe Mitch Marner was a bigger influence than we thought on this club. I’ll save the full breakdown for those more qualified than myself, but I see the Leafs having no worries about a first round exit this year - they miss entirely.

6. Ottawa Senators: This has been a tricky team to read for many moons, but the regression in the crease has me tentative to pick the Sens to make much more noise than they are right now. Much like the Habs, there’s some firepower and youth to be had, but something tells me this team just isn’t quite deep enough, nor does it defend well enough to make the cut in this logjam division.

7. Boston Bruins: Let’s be honest about the B’s, shall we? They are exceeding expectations right now. I firmly believe that pattern will slow as the season wears on and the games get closer. This was a team with a very low ceiling this year- so credit to them thus far. There’s a chance they continue to play sound hockey and finish higher than a near-basement slot, of course- this is a group with playoff experience and aspirations to stay afloat. It just may be a tough year to do so given the state of this Atlantic Division.

8. Buffalo Sabres: Where to begin… My last bet feels the safest, with poor Tage Thompson’s Sabres finding the bottom of the standings again. It’s messy out in Buffalo- I don’t expect that to change.

Michelle Gordon-- Assistant Editor & Senior Writer

This is a very tough division to predict. Everyone is so close. A hot streak by one team or a cold one by another changes the whole landscape! Remember a few years ago when by the time Christmas came around, the Eastern Conference playoff teams were all pretty much a lock??

1.       Tampa Bay Lightning: I’m doing it—sticking with my original pick for number one! The Bolts’ record may not look great, and the casual observer may see streakiness, but in my opinion, they’ve been the best team in the division all season, even if the points don’t always reflect it. No one else in the division comes close in goal differential, and the Bolts also lead (tied with Florida) in regulation wins. They certainly will need their luck to turn around in order to win the Atlantic, but based on their structure and play this year, I simply cannot bet against them.

2.       Florida Panthers: They keep playing dirty—and it continues to work. Once Tkachuk returns (and the dirty play ramps up), this team could easily win the division. But I prefer to cling to the belief that targeting opponents’ heads doesn’t win you divisions.

3.       Detroit Red Wings: Definitely one of the biggest surprises of the year for me is how good this Detroit team has looked. They’ve had early season success before only to faltered, but the pieces really do seem to be coming together for them nicely right now, and I don’t see any reason for that to change.

4.       Ottawa Senators: I’m a big believer in this team’s potential. I was expecting a very good season from them and was a little surprised by their meh start. Now they’re rounding into form and sit just a point away from a playoff spot. Their +6 goal differential is second only to Tampa Bay’s +22 in the Atlantic. Expect Ottawa to make some noise second half of the season.

5.       Montreal Canadiens: A fun, talented young team, but they lack consistency. I expect them to stay right in the thick of this race until close to the end. I just don’t see them at quite the same level as the teams above them to finish out an 82-game season.

6.       Toronto Maple Leafs: This one has been a shock to me. I knew losing Marner would hurt, but I still expected them to be a top division team. I still believe they will right the ship and make a push in the second half, but they are running out of runway with too many teams in front of them making similar pushes.

7.       Buffalo Sabres: I think this team honestly does have potential. They are currently ahead of both Toronto and Boston (by points percentage). I can see them having a fairly strong finish to the season but not enough to overtake the teams in front of them this season.

8.       Boston Bruins: Originally, I had them 8^th, thinking they were tanking. I have been incredibly surprised by their strong start to this season. They are well coached, have great goaltending, and an unstoppable Morgan Geekie. In the end, though, I just don’t see this team as having enough talent to finish ahead of any of the other Atlantic division teams.

Keep following Thunderstruck Sports all season long for top-notch Lightning coverage, and of course, to see if our any of our predictions come true!