The Seventh Year: Why Nikita Kucherov Stays a Bolt
By Ernie Norquist | Thunderstruck Sports
The new CBA gave the Tampa Bay Lightning an offer no other team can make, and the reigning MVP has every reason to take it: Seven years.
That is the longest extension any NHL team can offer since the new collective bargaining agreement took effect September 16th. A player who reaches free agency and signs somewhere new can get six. No more.
Only one team can offer Nikita Kucherov that seventh year. It plays at Benchmark.
Kucherov is 33. His $9.5 million cap hit expires after this season, and he becomes an unrestricted free agent July 1 at 34. For a player that age, the extra year is not a rounding error. It is a guaranteed paycheck at an age when most wingers have left the league.
He is also the best player on the planet, and that is not only my view. Julien BriseBois said it at media day Sept. 16, calling Kucherov "a historically great player" and "maybe the best player in the world right now."
The numbers agree. Kucherov put up 44 goals, 86 assists, and 130 points in 76 games last season. He won the Hart Trophy, the Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award. He has played all 12 of his NHL seasons in Tampa. Two Stanley Cups. Two Harts. A career total of 1,124 points.
He is not going anywhere.
Kuckerov is Kucherov
Kuch is Kuch. Training camp is no measure of him. The real work happens alone, in the days after the last game of the season, long before anyone opens the rink for camp.
At media day, he was asked how the game has changed. His answer: "The game is faster, but very dumb. Low IQ."
That is who he is. It is also one more reason he stays.
Kucherov is the smartest player in the league, and he has never played an NHL game for anyone but Jon Cooper, the most cerebral coach in professional sports. Cooper took over behind the Tampa bench March 25, 2013. Kucherov made his NHL debut eight months later.
The player sees the play two moves ahead. The coach builds around what he sees. They feed off each other.
The worried camp has a real case, and it deserves a full hearing.
It starts with Steven Stamkos. On May 1, 2024, BriseBois said of his captain, "Steven Stamkos needs a contract, and we want him to be part of that group." He called himself "very hopeful." Stamkos signed with Nashville on July 1.
Here is what BriseBois said this time: "Throughout these contract negotiations, both parties I know would prefer to have a deal today."
Then: "We haven't been able to do that."
Next comes the price. Chris Johnston said on his show that he heard Kucherov was looking for "something like 20 million dollar range on like a six year deal." That would put him beside Cale Makar, who signed at $20.4 million Aug. 28 and now carries the highest cap hit in league history.
And there is the spring. The Lightning have lost in the first round four years running. Montreal ended the latest run in seven games, winning Game 7 at Benchmark 2-1. Kucherov had one goal and six points in the series. Julian Gaudio of The Sporting News noted Kucherov has never recorded a point in seven career Game 7s.
A 33-year-old asking for $20 million. A team that has not won a playoff round since 2022. A general manager who has let a franchise icon walk before. Anyone who feels nervous reading that list is paying attention.
I am not nervous.
Start with Stamkos, because the comparison breaks on contact. Stamkos was 34 and coming off a 40-goal, 81-point season when he left. BriseBois had already decided where the money would go, acquiring Jake Guentzel's rights from Carolina and signing him to a seven-year, $63 million deal. That was a hockey call on an aging center versus a younger scorer. Kucherov just won the MVP. There is no younger scorer is waiting to take his money. There is no plan B that scores 130.
Now the $20 million. Johnston said, "I heard." An opening ask is not a final number.
Kucherov's agent, Dan Milstein, and BriseBois have done this before. Twice. Kucherov in 2018. Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2019. Eight years each, both signed with a year left on the old deal. Milstein has not said a word publicly this time. That is how he works.
The math in Tampa leaves room for a middle ground. The salary cap rises from $104 million this season to $113.5 million next season. That is a $9.5 million jump. It is also, to the dollar, what Kucherov makes today.
Then there is the tax bill. Florida has no state income tax. A dollar paid in Tampa goes further than the same dollar paid in Toronto, Montreal, New York, or Los Angeles. A rival team has to beat Tampa's number just to match it.
And a rival team can offer only six years. The Lightning can offer seven, which lets BriseBois lower the cap hit and still put more total money on the table than anyone else. Other teams can chase Kucherov with a bigger yearly number. Tampa can beat them on the total.
Money is not the only price. Kuch is not a media guy. The teams that could offer the biggest numbers play in the biggest media markets, in those same cities. More money means more microphones. Even here, one short answer at media day went viral. In Toronto, that is a week of talk radio.
The playoffs are the hardest point, and I will not pretend otherwise. Four springs. Four early exits. None of it pretty.
Nobody has taken those losses harder than Kuch. He is a gamer. But a bigger paycheck does not buy a deeper run. Every dollar a new team spends on him is a dollar it cannot spend on the players around him. He could chase the money and miss the playoffs altogether.
Letting him walk would not fix Tampa's first-round problem either. It would swap it for a missed-playoffs problem. The Bolts earned 106 points last season with Kucherov leading the league in scoring. Take him out, and that total does not survive.
On the contract itself, Kucherov gave nothing away. "My mind is trying to help the team this year," he said. "I control what I can control."
BriseBois explained the wait back on July 2nd. Free agents and trade targets disappear if a team does not move on them, so that work came first. He also said, "We would like Nikita to stay here, he would like to stay here."
Both sides want it. Only one side can offer seven years.
Here is my call. Kucherov signs a seven-year extension before the trade deadline, with a cap hit between $16 million and $18 million. He finishes his career in a Lightning sweater.
Tampa remembers Sept. 30, 2020, at Raymond James Stadium. Kucherov rushed the podium during Jeff Vinik's speech. "This man is the best man in Tampa. The best man in America!" Then he kissed Vinik on the cheek.
Tampa remembers July 7, 2021. Shirtless at the postgame press conference, Bud Light in hand.
He has one or two more of those nights in him.
Puck drops Thursday at the Garden.
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