Verhaeghe Left. Barré-Boulet Stalled. Now Duke and O'Reilly Wait.
By Ernie Norquist | Thunderstruck Sports
Timing is everything. My case for Sam O'Reilly and Dylan Duke went up Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, both were headed to Syracuse.
I missed by a few hours. The Lightning risk missing by a season.
Before anyone reads this as a shot at the front office, understand where I stand. I respect Julien BriseBois and his staff.
BriseBois took over as general manager Sept. 11, 2018. His first team won 62 games and the Presidents' Trophy. His next two won the Stanley Cup. The next season, they played for a third straight Cup.
Before he ran the big club, he ran the farm. Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Anthony Cirelli and Yanni Gourde all came through the minor league system he oversaw. Nobody in the building knows the Crunch pipeline better.
Behind the bench, Jon Cooper won the Jack Adams Award in June. He is the longest-tenured active head coach in the NHL. Last season was his ninth straight playoff berth and his 12th playoff trip in 13 full seasons.
That is the trouble with Tampa. Winning spoiled us.
Three straight trips to the Cup Final. Two parades. Most fan bases would frame a ninth straight playoff berth. Here, four straight first-round exits feel like a drought.
Respect is not a free pass, though.
The reporters in the room can ask whether this is the best club the Lightning can put on the ice. They ask about injuries, line combinations, and Kucherov's contract. My take on that last one is coming later this week.
I am not in that room. My view comes from behind a keyboard and a 75-inch TV.
Neither of us has a job riding on the answer. The people making these calls do. They answer for them every spring. The last four springs are on their record, and their answer looks a lot like the approach that produced them.
Whether this roster is built to win a Stanley Cup is their call. This is mine.
I watch the games. The staff watches the film.
Every shift O'Reilly and Duke took this fall was broken down in a video room. Who they faced. Where they won pucks. Where they lost them. The coaches know more about those minutes than I ever will.
That knowledge cuts both ways. The same staff has four springs of film on the bottom six. They know it has not been what a contender needs. They made the roster anyway.
BriseBois set the roster Sunday afternoon: 16 forwards, eight defensemen and two goalies. Gourde and Dominic James went on injured reserve, which leaves 14 healthy forwards. As my colleague Mike Smith reported, one more cut comes by Monday's deadline, and Benjamin Rautiainen will likely head back to Finland to finish his pro contract there.
Fourteen healthy forwards. O'Reilly and Duke are not among them.
This is a habit with a history. The top six is spoken for. The young forwards get fourth-line minutes or a trip to Syracuse. Some never find their way back.
Alex Barré-Boulet signed as an undrafted free agent on March 1, 2018. As a Crunch rookie, he scored 34 goals, shared the AHL goal-scoring title with teammate Carter Verhaeghe and won the league's rookie of the year award. Tampa put him on waivers in October 2021. Seattle claimed him, played him twice, and put him back on waivers. The Lightning reclaimed him less than two weeks later. He played 66 games for the Lightning over four seasons and never found a full-time role. He has spent the years since on one-year and two-way deals in Montreal, Colorado, and now San Jose.
Verhaeghe won the AHL scoring title that season, the first Crunch player ever to do it. He played 55 games for the Lightning in 2019-20 and won a Stanley Cup. That fall, with the cap tight, Tampa did not extend him a qualifying offer. He signed with Florida. He has since won two more Cups with the Panthers, with five overtime goals and 13 game-winning goals in the playoffs.
Jonathan Marchessault played two regular-season games for the Lightning. He left as a free agent on July 1, 2016. In his first full season with Florida, he scored 30 goals. In 2023, he won the Conn Smythe Trophy with Vegas. The next season, he scored 42.
Taylor Raddysh was traded to Chicago on March 18, 2022. In his first full season there, he led the Blackhawks with 20 goals.
Fair is fair.
The Raddysh trade brought back Brandon Hagel, and nobody in Tampa wants that one back. The old way built two Cups.
The old way has also built four straight first-round exits.
There is a case for Syracuse, and it is a real one. Injuries are part of this league. Gourde and James are already hurt, and it is September. In Syracuse, O'Reilly and Duke play big minutes and stay sharp. Neither needs to clear waivers to come up. When the next injury hits, the Bolts can call on players who are ready, not players who spent a month in the press box.
I can see that value from behind my keyboard. Here is what it does not answer. Barré-Boulet was kept ready for years. A call-up is not a role.
O'Reilly and Duke are not Verhaeghe. Not yet.
Cirelli shows how it should go. He scored the overtime goal that won Oshawa the 2015 Memorial Cup. He played 51 games for the Crunch in 2017-18. The Lightning recalled him on March 1, 2018. He scored a goal and added an assist in his debut that night, and he never went back. Today he is on an eight-year, $50 million deal and has been a Selke Trophy finalist two years running.
O'Reilly just won the Memorial Cup MVP award. Duke has already done his time in Syracuse, with 32 goals and 59 points in 72 games last season. His goal total tied for third in the AHL. Neither needs another league to conquer. Both need the call Cirelli got, and the chance to stay.
The math matters, too. If the Bolts pay Kucherov what he is worth on his next deal, they need cheap forwards who can score. Two of them are riding the bus to Syracuse. More on what Kucherov is worth later this week.
I missed on timing once this week. I do not plan to miss this.
When they get the chance, we see a Cirelli-like sequel in Tampa. And this time, nobody rides the bus back to Syracuse.
Puck drops Thursday at the Garden.
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